NYJSF
New York Jets @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,830 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Jets defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Jets 21st (-1.9).
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Jets win 2,170 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -9.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · SF n/a | NYJ 22% · SF 78% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +362 · SF -362 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 27, NYJ 17.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 7 and SF by 27.
Side by side
| NYJ | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-1 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-09 | 2024 Wk 1 | NYJ 19 @ SF 32 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | SF 31 @ NYJ 13 | SF | SF -7 |
| 2016-12-11 | 2016 Wk 14 | NYJ 23 @ SF 17 | NYJ | SF -3 |
| 2012-09-30 | 2012 Wk 4 | SF 34 @ NYJ 0 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2008-12-07 | 2008 Wk 14 | NYJ 14 @ SF 24 | SF | NYJ -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away