PHICAR
Philadelphia Eagles @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Simulation: Panthers win 5,890 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Panthers rank 6th (3.9), Eagles 31st (2.0).
- Panthers passing game (16th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Panthers running game (18th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,110 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Eagles running game (23rd in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Panthers lose by 14 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Eagles rank 9th (52.1), Panthers 31st (73.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.5 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · CAR n/a | PHI 41% · CAR 59% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +143 · CAR -143 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 23, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 14 and CAR by 20.
Side by side
| PHI | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | CAR 25 @ PHI 14 | CAR | CAR -3 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | CAR 16 @ PHI 22 | PHI | PHI -14 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | PHI 21 @ CAR 18 | PHI | CAR -2.5 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | CAR 21 @ PHI 17 | CAR | PHI -5 |
| 2017-10-12 | 2017 Wk 6 | PHI 28 @ CAR 23 | PHI | CAR -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away