PHICHI
Philadelphia Eagles @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to Bears in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Bears rank 7th (+5.3), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Bears win 6,990 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Bears passing game (10th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Eagles 31st (2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,010 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 10 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Bears 26th (73.3%).
- Weak spot: Bears rank 26th in field goal percentage (73.3%).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · CHI n/a | PHI 30% · CHI 70% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +232 · CHI -232 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 26, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 10 and CHI by 24.
Side by side
| PHI | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | 2026 Wk 3 | PHI 7 @ CHI 27 | CHI | PHI -3.5 |
| 2025-11-28 | 2025 Wk 13 | CHI 24 @ PHI 15 | CHI | PHI -7 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | PHI 25 @ CHI 20 | PHI | PHI -8.5 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | CHI 14 @ PHI 22 | PHI | PHI -5 |
| 2019-01-06 | 2018 Wild Card | PHI 16 @ CHI 15 | PHI | CHI -6.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away