PHICIN
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
75% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 75% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to Bengals in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Bengals +8.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Bengals passing game (5th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Simulation: Bengals win 7,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 2,490 of 10,000 simulations (25%). A 75% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 23rd in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (3.0).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -7.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · CIN n/a | PHI 25% · CIN 75% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +301 · CIN -301 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 27, PHI 19.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 7 and CIN by 25.
Side by side
| PHI | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | PHI 37 @ CIN 17 | PHI | CIN -2.5 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | CIN 23 @ PHI 23 | Tie | PHI -5.5 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | PHI 14 @ CIN 32 | CIN | CIN -1 |
| 2012-12-13 | 2012 Wk 15 | CIN 34 @ PHI 13 | CIN | CIN -4.5 |
| 2008-11-16 | 2008 Wk 11 | PHI 13 @ CIN 13 | Tie | PHI -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away