PHICLE
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CLECleveland Browns
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Browns can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Browns +0.3, Eagles -10.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Eagles 32nd (3.2%).
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Browns win 5,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Browns in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Browns may not
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 2.4 points stronger.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,730 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Browns lose by 16 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Eagles rank 20th (7.1%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
- History: Eagles won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CLE -0.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 40.1 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · CLE n/a | PHI 47% · CLE 53% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +112 · CLE -112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 20, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 16 and CLE by 18.
Side by side
| PHI | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | CLE 16 @ PHI 20 | PHI | PHI -8 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | PHI 17 @ CLE 22 | CLE | CLE -2.5 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | CLE 10 @ PHI 29 | PHI | PHI -3.5 |
| 2012-09-09 | 2012 Wk 1 | PHI 17 @ CLE 16 | PHI | PHI -9 |
| 2008-12-15 | 2008 Wk 15 | CLE 10 @ PHI 30 | PHI | PHI -15.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away