PHILAC
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Simulation: Chargers win 5,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Eagles cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Chargers rank 19th (6.0%), Eagles 32nd (3.2%).
- History: Chargers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,480 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Eagles rank 21st (-0.4), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chargers lose by 14 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Eagles rank 9th (52.1), Chargers 30th (73.5).
- Weak spot: Chargers rank 32nd in point differential per game (-10.2).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -1.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.3 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · LAC n/a | PHI 45% · LAC 55% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +123 · LAC -123 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 21, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 14 and LAC by 18.
Side by side
| PHI | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 0-6 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-08 | 2025 Wk 14 | PHI 19 @ LAC 22 | LAC | PHI -1.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | LAC 27 @ PHI 24 | LAC | LAC -1 |
| 2017-10-01 | 2017 Wk 4 | PHI 26 @ LAC 24 | PHI | LAC -1.5 |
| 2013-09-15 | 2013 Wk 2 | LAC 33 @ PHI 30 | LAC | PHI -7.5 |
| 2009-11-15 | 2009 Wk 10 | PHI 23 @ LAC 31 | LAC | LAC -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away