PHINYJ
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Jets passing game (13th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Eagles -10.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Eagles 32nd (3.2%).
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Jets win 5,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 2.1 points stronger.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,870 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 16 or more.
- History: Eagles won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Penalty yards per game: Eagles rank 9th (52.1), Jets 26th (69.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYJ -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.7 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · NYJ n/a | PHI 49% · NYJ 51% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +105 · NYJ -105 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 21, PHI 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 16 and NYJ by 17.
Side by side
| PHI | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | PHI 14 @ NYJ 20 | NYJ | PHI -6.5 |
| 2021-12-05 | 2021 Wk 13 | PHI 33 @ NYJ 18 | PHI | PHI -5 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | NYJ 6 @ PHI 31 | PHI | PHI -14 |
| 2015-09-27 | 2015 Wk 3 | PHI 24 @ NYJ 17 | PHI | NYJ -3 |
| 2011-12-18 | 2011 Wk 15 | NYJ 19 @ PHI 45 | PHI | PHI -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away