PITCHI
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Chicago Bears
Any-day matchup, Bears at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CHIChicago Bears
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bears can win
- Simulation: Bears win 6,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Bears play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Bears rank 2nd (4.6), Steelers 13th (3.7).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Bears rank 3rd (8.9%), Steelers 14th (7.0%).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to Bears in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bears may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Bears -3.3.
- Upset odds: Steelers win 3,980 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Bears 18th (-0.1).
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Bears defense that ranks 19th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bears lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CHI -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · CHI n/a | PIT 40% · CHI 60% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT +151 · CHI -151 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CHI 24, PIT 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 13 and CHI by 20.
Side by side
| PIT | CHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 25.7 7 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | +0.04 11 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.01 17 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 8.9% 3 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | PIT 28 @ CHI 31 | CHI | CHI -3 |
| 2021-11-08 | 2021 Wk 9 | CHI 27 @ PIT 29 | PIT | PIT -7 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | PIT 17 @ CHI 23 | CHI | PIT -7 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | CHI 40 @ PIT 23 | CHI | CHI -2.5 |
| 2009-09-20 | 2009 Wk 2 | PIT 14 @ CHI 17 | CHI | PIT -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away