PITCIN
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
Any-day matchup, Bengals at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CINCincinnati Bengals
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bengals can win
- Simulation: Bengals win 6,440 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bengals about 1.4 points stronger.
- Home field: Bengals play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Bengals rank 4th (+6.8), Steelers 11th (+2.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Bengals in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bengals may not
- Upset odds: Steelers win 3,560 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Bengals defense that ranks 15th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bengals lose by 12 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Steelers rank 13th (3.7), Bengals 23rd (3.0).
- Weak spot: Bengals rank 28th in explosive plays allowed per game (4.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CIN -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 46 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · CIN n/a | PIT 36% · CIN 64% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT +181 · CIN -181 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CIN 24, PIT 20.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 12 and CIN by 21.
Side by side
| PIT | CIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 27.2 4 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 20.3 8 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | +0.11 6 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 9 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 9.4% 2 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | CIN 27 @ PIT 30 | PIT | CIN -3.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | CIN 12 @ PIT 34 | PIT | PIT -5.5 |
| 2025-10-16 | 2025 Wk 7 | PIT 31 @ CIN 33 | CIN | PIT -5.5 |
| 2025-01-04 | 2024 Wk 18 | CIN 19 @ PIT 17 | CIN | CIN -2.5 |
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | PIT 44 @ CIN 38 | PIT | CIN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away