PITCLE
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 3.0 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Browns +0.3.
- Simulation: Steelers win 5,970 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Steelers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,030 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 14 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Steelers 14th (7.0%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 40.4 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · CLE n/a | PIT 60% · CLE 40% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -148 · CLE +148 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 19, PIT 21.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 20 and CLE by 14.
Side by side
| PIT | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-2 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-01 | 2026 Wk 4 | PIT 24 @ CLE 27 | CLE | PIT -2.5 |
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | PIT 6 @ CLE 13 | CLE | PIT -4.5 |
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | CLE 9 @ PIT 23 | PIT | PIT -5.5 |
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | CLE 14 @ PIT 27 | PIT | PIT -6 |
| 2024-11-21 | 2024 Wk 12 | PIT 19 @ CLE 24 | CLE | PIT -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away