PITDAL
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Simulation: Cowboys win 5,720 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 1.1 points stronger.
- Cowboys running game (6th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Cowboys -0.3.
- Upset odds: Steelers win 4,280 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
- Steelers passing game (26th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 31st against it.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -2.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.2 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · DAL n/a | PIT 43% · DAL 57% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT +134 · DAL -134 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 24, PIT 23.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 14 and DAL by 19.
Side by side
| PIT | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 3-4 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-06 | 2024 Wk 5 | DAL 20 @ PIT 17 | DAL | PIT -2.5 |
| 2020-11-08 | 2020 Wk 9 | PIT 24 @ DAL 19 | PIT | PIT -14 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | DAL 35 @ PIT 30 | DAL | PIT -3 |
| 2012-12-16 | 2012 Wk 15 | PIT 24 @ DAL 27 | DAL | PIT -1 |
| 2008-12-07 | 2008 Wk 14 | DAL 13 @ PIT 20 | PIT | PIT -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away