PITDET
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
61% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 61% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 1.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Lions win 6,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Lions passing game (1st in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 9th against it.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Lions rank 11th (5.1%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Upset odds: Steelers win 3,890 of 10,000 simulations (39%). A 61% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 13 or more.
- History: Steelers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 49.2 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · DET n/a | PIT 39% · DET 61% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT +157 · DET -157 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 26, PIT 23.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 13 and DET by 20.
Side by side
| PIT | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-2 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | 2025 Wk 16 | PIT 29 @ DET 24 | PIT | DET -7.5 |
| 2021-11-14 | 2021 Wk 10 | DET 16 @ PIT 16 | Tie | PIT -9 |
| 2017-10-29 | 2017 Wk 8 | PIT 20 @ DET 15 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2013-11-17 | 2013 Wk 11 | DET 27 @ PIT 37 | PIT | DET -3 |
| 2009-10-11 | 2009 Wk 5 | PIT 28 @ DET 20 | PIT | PIT -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away