PITKC
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 2.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Chiefs running game (2nd in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Steelers 23rd (7.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Chiefs +0.7.
- Upset odds: Steelers win 3,460 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Steelers rank 14th (7.0%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Chiefs rank 31st in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.2 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · KC n/a | PIT 35% · KC 65% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT +189 · KC -189 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 24, PIT 19.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 11 and KC by 21.
Side by side
| PIT | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 5-1 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-25 | 2024 Wk 17 | KC 29 @ PIT 10 | KC | KC -3 |
| 2022-01-16 | 2021 Wild Card | PIT 21 @ KC 42 | KC | KC -13 |
| 2021-12-26 | 2021 Wk 16 | PIT 10 @ KC 36 | KC | KC -10.5 |
| 2018-09-16 | 2018 Wk 2 | KC 42 @ PIT 37 | KC | PIT -4.5 |
| 2017-10-15 | 2017 Wk 6 | PIT 19 @ KC 13 | PIT | KC -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away