PITLAC
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Chargers -9.7.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Steelers in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Simulation: Steelers win 5,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,250 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Travel: Steelers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.5 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · LAC n/a | PIT 57% · LAC 42% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -135 · LAC +135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 20, PIT 22.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 18 and LAC by 15.
Side by side
| PIT | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 0-6 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | PIT 10 @ LAC 25 | LAC | LAC -3 |
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | LAC 10 @ PIT 20 | PIT | PIT -3 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | PIT 37 @ LAC 41 | LAC | LAC -5.5 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | PIT 24 @ LAC 17 | PIT | LAC -6 |
| 2018-12-02 | 2018 Wk 13 | LAC 33 @ PIT 30 | LAC | PIT -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away