PITPHI
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, Eagles -10.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Steelers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Steelers rank 11th (+2.1), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Steelers running game (8th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Simulation: Steelers win 5,800 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,200 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 14 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Steelers 20th (80.0%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 41 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · PHI n/a | PIT 58% · PHI 42% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT -138 · PHI +138 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 20, PIT 21.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 18 and PHI by 14.
Side by side
| PIT | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 2-5 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | PIT 13 @ PHI 27 | PHI | PHI -5.5 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | PIT 13 @ PHI 35 | PHI | PHI -11 |
| 2020-10-11 | 2020 Wk 5 | PHI 29 @ PIT 38 | PIT | PIT -7.5 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | PIT 3 @ PHI 34 | PHI | PIT -3.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | PHI 14 @ PIT 16 | PIT | PIT -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away