PITSEA
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 2.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Steelers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Upset odds: Steelers win 2,970 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 42 |
| Win chance | PIT n/a · SEA n/a | PIT 30% · SEA 70% |
| Fair moneyline | PIT +236 · SEA -236 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 24, PIT 17.
- 80% of simulations land between PIT by 10 and SEA by 24.
Side by side
| PIT | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | Record | 4-3 |
| 21.9 22 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 19.7 5 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.06 27 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.03 10 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.0% 14 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | SEA 31 @ PIT 17 | SEA | PIT -3.5 |
| 2023-12-31 | 2023 Wk 17 | PIT 30 @ SEA 23 | PIT | SEA -4.5 |
| 2021-10-17 | 2021 Wk 6 | SEA 20 @ PIT 23 | PIT | PIT -5.5 |
| 2019-09-15 | 2019 Wk 2 | SEA 28 @ PIT 26 | SEA | PIT -4 |
| 2015-11-29 | 2015 Wk 12 | PIT 30 @ SEA 39 | SEA | SEA -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away