SEALA
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Rams win 5,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Seahawks 18th (6.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Seahawks win 4,940 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Seahawks rank 8th (7.4%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Turnover margin per game: Seahawks rank 18th (-0.1), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.6 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · LA n/a | SEA 49% · LA 51% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA +102 · LA -102 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 23, SEA 23.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 16 and LA by 17.
Side by side
| SEA | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | 2025 Conf. title | LA 27 @ SEA 31 | SEA | SEA -2.5 |
| 2025-12-18 | 2025 Wk 16 | LA 37 @ SEA 38 | SEA | SEA -1.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | SEA 19 @ LA 21 | LA | LA -3 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | SEA 30 @ LA 25 | SEA | SEA -7.5 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | LA 26 @ SEA 20 | LA | LA -1.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away