SFCLE
San Francisco 49ers @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 4.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,110 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: 49ers rank 2nd (3.2%), Browns 32nd (10.6%).
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Browns win 2,890 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -6 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · CLE n/a | SF 71% · CLE 29% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -246 · CLE +246 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 20, SF 25.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 23 and CLE by 10.
Side by side
| SF | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | SF 26 @ CLE 8 | SF | SF -5.5 |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | SF 17 @ CLE 19 | CLE | SF -9.5 |
| 2019-10-07 | 2019 Wk 5 | CLE 3 @ SF 31 | SF | SF -5 |
| 2015-12-13 | 2015 Wk 14 | SF 10 @ CLE 24 | CLE | CLE -2.5 |
| 2011-10-30 | 2011 Wk 8 | CLE 10 @ SF 20 | SF | SF -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away