SFDEN
San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Broncos 16th (+0.4).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: 49ers rank 4th (4.0), Broncos 29th (2.3).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,070 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Broncos win 4,930 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, 49ers +0.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Broncos rank 5th (+0.6), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · DEN n/a | SF 51% · DEN 49% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -103 · DEN +103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 23, SF 23.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 17 and DEN by 17.
Side by side
| SF | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | DEN 14 @ SF 24 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | SF 10 @ DEN 11 | DEN | SF -1 |
| 2018-12-09 | 2018 Wk 14 | DEN 14 @ SF 20 | SF | DEN -3 |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Wk 7 | SF 17 @ DEN 42 | DEN | DEN -7 |
| 2010-10-31 | 2010 Wk 8 | DEN 16 @ SF 24 | SF | SF -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away