SFKC
San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Chiefs rank 3rd (+0.8), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Simulation: Chiefs win 5,350 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: 49ers cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Upset odds: 49ers win 4,650 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 8th against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 11th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.6 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 15 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 48 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · KC n/a | SF 46% · KC 54% |
| Fair moneyline | SF +115 · KC -115 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 24, SF 23.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 15 and KC by 18.
Side by side
| SF | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | KC 28 @ SF 18 | KC | SF -2.5 |
| 2024-02-11 | 2023 Super Bowl | SF 22 @ KC 25 | KC | SF -1.5 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | KC 44 @ SF 23 | KC | KC -1 |
| 2020-02-02 | 2019 Super Bowl | SF 20 @ KC 31 | KC | KC -1.5 |
| 2018-09-23 | 2018 Wk 3 | SF 27 @ KC 38 | KC | KC -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away