SFLAC
San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, 49ers +0.0, Chargers -9.7.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,150 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 11 or more.
- History: Chargers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -5.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · LAC n/a | SF 68% · LAC 32% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -217 · LAC +217 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 21, SF 26.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 22 and LAC by 11.
Side by side
| SF | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 0-6 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | LAC 16 @ SF 22 | SF | SF -8.5 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | SF 27 @ LAC 29 | LAC | LAC -10 |
| 2014-12-20 | 2014 Wk 16 | LAC 38 @ SF 35 | LAC | SF -2 |
| 2010-12-16 | 2010 Wk 15 | SF 7 @ LAC 34 | LAC | LAC -10 |
| 2006-10-15 | 2006 Wk 6 | LAC 48 @ SF 19 | LAC | LAC -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away