SFMIA
San Francisco 49ers @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 5.7 points stronger.
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.3 points to 49ers in our ratings.
- Simulation: 49ers win 7,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 2,090 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 7 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -8.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 47 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · MIA n/a | SF 79% · MIA 21% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -378 · MIA +378 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 19, SF 27.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 27 and MIA by 7.
Side by side
| SF | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 1-5 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | MIA 13 @ SF 35 | SF | SF -12.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | SF 17 @ MIA 29 | MIA | SF -2 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | MIA 17 @ SF 33 | SF | SF -4.5 |
| 2020-10-11 | 2020 Wk 5 | MIA 43 @ SF 17 | MIA | SF -8.5 |
| 2016-11-27 | 2016 Wk 12 | SF 24 @ MIA 31 | MIA | MIA -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away