SFPIT
San Francisco 49ers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 1.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,790 of 10,000 simulated games.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Steelers 11th (+2.1).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to 49ers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Steelers +8.3, 49ers +0.0.
- Upset odds: Steelers win 4,210 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · PIT n/a | SF 58% · PIT 42% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -137 · PIT +137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 21, SF 23.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 18 and PIT by 14.
Side by side
| SF | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 5-2 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | SF 30 @ PIT 7 | SF | SF -1.5 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | PIT 20 @ SF 24 | SF | SF -6 |
| 2015-09-20 | 2015 Wk 2 | SF 18 @ PIT 43 | PIT | PIT -6 |
| 2011-12-19 | 2011 Wk 15 | PIT 3 @ SF 20 | SF | SF -3 |
| 2007-09-23 | 2007 Wk 3 | SF 16 @ PIT 37 | PIT | PIT -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away