SFSEA
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,910 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 1.2 points stronger.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Seahawks rank 8th (7.4%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: 49ers win 4,090 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: 49ers rank 4th (4.0), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: 49ers rank 2nd (3.2%), Seahawks 18th (6.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -2.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.8 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · SEA n/a | SF 41% · SEA 59% |
| Fair moneyline | SF +144 · SEA -144 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 24, SF 21.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 14 and SEA by 20.
Side by side
| SF | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | SF 32 @ SEA 29 | SF | SEA -3 |
| 2026-01-17 | 2025 Divisional | SF 6 @ SEA 41 | SEA | SEA -6.5 |
| 2026-01-03 | 2025 Wk 18 | SEA 13 @ SF 3 | SEA | SEA -2.5 |
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | SF 17 @ SEA 13 | SF | SF -2.5 |
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | SEA 20 @ SF 17 | SEA | SF -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away