TBCLE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cleveland Browns
Any-day matchup, Browns at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Browns +0.3.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Buccaneers about 1.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,550 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Browns 21st (-1.9).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.0 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Browns win 4,450 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Browns play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Browns rank 6th (7.8%), Buccaneers 18th (6.1%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 15 or more.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Browns rank 17th (3.6), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -1.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.3 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · CLE n/a | TB 56% · CLE 44% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -125 · CLE +125 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CLE 20, TB 21.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 17 and CLE by 15.
Side by side
| TB | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 19.0 28 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 20.9 12 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 20 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 13 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 7.8% 6 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | CLE 23 @ TB 19 | CLE | TB -8.5 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | TB 17 @ CLE 23 | CLE | TB -3 |
| 2018-10-21 | 2018 Wk 7 | CLE 23 @ TB 26 | TB | TB -3.5 |
| 2014-11-02 | 2014 Wk 9 | TB 17 @ CLE 22 | CLE | CLE -7 |
| 2010-09-12 | 2010 Wk 1 | CLE 14 @ TB 17 | TB | TB -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away