TBDAL
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
Any-day matchup, Cowboys at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DALDallas Cowboys
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Cowboys can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Cowboys about 2.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Cowboys win 6,180 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Cowboys rank 1st (2.5%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Home field: Cowboys play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Strength: Cowboys rank 1st in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (2.5%).
Disadvantages Why the Cowboys may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Cowboys -0.3.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Cowboys defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,820 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Cowboys lose by 12 or more.
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Cowboys 21st (-0.4).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DAL -3.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 50.1 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · DAL n/a | TB 38% · DAL 62% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +162 · DAL -162 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DAL 27, TB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 12 and DAL by 21.
Side by side
| TB | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 27.0 5 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.13 5 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.14 32 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 4.4% 25 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-08 | 2026 Wk 5 | TB 24 @ DAL 16 | TB | DAL -9.5 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | TB 24 @ DAL 26 | DAL | TB -4.5 |
| 2023-01-16 | 2022 Wild Card | DAL 31 @ TB 14 | DAL | DAL -2.5 |
| 2022-09-11 | 2022 Wk 1 | TB 19 @ DAL 3 | TB | TB -2.5 |
| 2021-09-09 | 2021 Wk 1 | DAL 29 @ TB 31 | TB | TB -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away