TBDEN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 2.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 6,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Broncos play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Broncos rank 6th (4.0%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Travel: Buccaneers cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,490 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -4.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · DEN n/a | TB 35% · DEN 65% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +187 · DEN -187 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 24, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 11 and DEN by 21.
Side by side
| TB | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | DEN 26 @ TB 7 | DEN | TB -6 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | TB 28 @ DEN 10 | TB | TB -6 |
| 2016-10-02 | 2016 Wk 4 | DEN 27 @ TB 7 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
| 2012-12-02 | 2012 Wk 13 | TB 23 @ DEN 31 | DEN | DEN -9.5 |
| 2008-10-05 | 2008 Wk 5 | TB 13 @ DEN 16 | DEN | DEN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away