TBDET
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions
Any-day matchup, Lions at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DETDetroit Lions
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Lions can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Lions about 3.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Lions win 6,450 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Lions play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Lions rank 10th (3.8), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Lions rank 11th (5.1%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Lions may not
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Lions defense that ranks 20th against it.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,550 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Lions lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Lions rank 32nd in explosive plays allowed per game (5.7).
- Weak spot: Lions rank 29th in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.12).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DET -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 51.1 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · DET n/a | TB 36% · DET 64% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +182 · DET -182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DET 27, TB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 11 and DET by 21.
Side by side
| TB | DET | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 30.7 2 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 27.5 26 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.14 4 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 29 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 7.5% 7 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | 2025 Wk 7 | TB 9 @ DET 24 | DET | DET -6 |
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | TB 20 @ DET 16 | TB | DET -7.5 |
| 2024-01-21 | 2023 Divisional | TB 23 @ DET 31 | DET | DET -6 |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | DET 20 @ TB 6 | DET | DET -3 |
| 2020-12-26 | 2020 Wk 16 | TB 47 @ DET 7 | TB | TB -12 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away