TBGB
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers
Any-day matchup, Packers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
GBGreen Bay Packers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Packers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Packers about 1.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Packers win 6,270 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Packers rank 3rd (4.5), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Home field: Packers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Packers rank 7th (4.3%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Packers may not
- Packers are missing regulars: LB Zaire Franklin (out), G Travis Glover (out), C Sean Rhyan (out).
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,730 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Packers have 1 regular listed questionable (Matthew Golden).
- Penalty yards per game: Buccaneers rank 8th (52.0), Packers 32nd (73.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Packers lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | GB -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · GB n/a | TB 37% · GB 63% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +168 · GB -168 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: GB 24, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 12 and GB by 21.
Side by side
| TB | GB | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-3 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 21.4 23 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 20.5 11 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.01 14 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 4 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.5 8 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 7.2% 11 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | GB 17 @ TB 14 | GB | GB -3 |
| 2023-12-17 | 2023 Wk 15 | TB 34 @ GB 20 | TB | GB -4 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | GB 14 @ TB 12 | GB | TB -1 |
| 2021-01-24 | 2020 Conf. title | TB 31 @ GB 26 | TB | GB -3 |
| 2020-10-18 | 2020 Wk 6 | GB 10 @ TB 38 | TB | GB -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away