TBHOU
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 2.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 6,340 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Home field: Texans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Texans rank 5th (7.9%), Buccaneers 18th (6.1%).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Texans defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,660 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Texans 20th (-0.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.3 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · HOU n/a | TB 37% · HOU 63% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +173 · HOU -173 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 24, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 11 and HOU by 21.
Side by side
| TB | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-15 | 2025 Wk 2 | TB 20 @ HOU 19 | TB | HOU -2.5 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | TB 37 @ HOU 39 | HOU | HOU -2.5 |
| 2019-12-21 | 2019 Wk 16 | HOU 23 @ TB 20 | HOU | HOU -3 |
| 2015-09-27 | 2015 Wk 3 | TB 9 @ HOU 19 | HOU | HOU -6 |
| 2011-11-13 | 2011 Wk 10 | HOU 37 @ TB 9 | HOU | HOU -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away