TBKC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Kansas City Chiefs
Any-day matchup, Chiefs at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
KCKansas City Chiefs
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chiefs can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chiefs about 3.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chiefs win 6,840 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Chiefs play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Chiefs rank 3rd (3.5%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Chiefs rank 10th (3.8), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
Disadvantages Why the Chiefs may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Chiefs +0.7.
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,160 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Buccaneers rank 18th (6.1%), Chiefs 31st (3.2%).
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Chiefs defense that ranks 11th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chiefs lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | KC -5.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · KC n/a | TB 32% · KC 68% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +217 · KC -217 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: KC 24, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 10 and KC by 23.
Side by side
| TB | KC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-1 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 23.8 14 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 17.2 2 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.10 7 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 6 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.8 3 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 31 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-04 | 2024 Wk 9 | TB 24 @ KC 30 | KC | KC -9 |
| 2022-10-02 | 2022 Wk 4 | KC 41 @ TB 31 | KC | TB -1 |
| 2021-02-07 | 2020 Super Bowl | KC 9 @ TB 31 | TB | KC -3 |
| 2020-11-29 | 2020 Wk 12 | KC 27 @ TB 24 | KC | KC -3.5 |
| 2016-11-20 | 2016 Wk 11 | TB 19 @ KC 17 | TB | KC -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away