TBLA
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 4.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 7,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Buccaneers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Rams play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Rams rank 5th (3.8%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Rams defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Rams +3.0.
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 2,990 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 9 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -6.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.7 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · LA n/a | TB 30% · LA 70% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +235 · LA -235 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 27, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 9 and LA by 24.
Side by side
| TB | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | 2025 Wk 12 | TB 7 @ LA 34 | LA | LA -7 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | LA 13 @ TB 16 | TB | TB -3 |
| 2022-01-23 | 2021 Divisional | LA 30 @ TB 27 | LA | TB -2.5 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | TB 24 @ LA 34 | LA | TB -1 |
| 2020-11-23 | 2020 Wk 11 | LA 27 @ TB 24 | LA | TB -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away