TBMIA
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Buccaneers about 2.8 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Dolphins -3.0.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.2 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 6,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 3,520 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 29th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · MIA n/a | TB 65% · MIA 35% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -184 · MIA +184 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 20, TB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 21 and MIA by 12.
Side by side
| TB | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | TB 17 @ MIA 20 | MIA | TB -5.5 |
| 2021-10-10 | 2021 Wk 5 | MIA 17 @ TB 45 | TB | TB -11 |
| 2017-11-19 | 2017 Wk 11 | TB 30 @ MIA 20 | TB | TB -1 |
| 2013-11-11 | 2013 Wk 10 | MIA 19 @ TB 22 | TB | MIA -1 |
| 2009-11-15 | 2009 Wk 10 | TB 23 @ MIA 25 | MIA | MIA -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away