TBNE
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Patriots rank 6th (3.9), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Patriots rank 14th (5.6%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,750 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 12 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -4.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · NE n/a | TB 38% · NE 62% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +167 · NE -167 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 24, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 12 and NE by 21.
Side by side
| TB | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-09 | 2025 Wk 10 | NE 28 @ TB 23 | NE | TB -2.5 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | TB 19 @ NE 17 | TB | TB -6 |
| 2017-10-05 | 2017 Wk 5 | NE 19 @ TB 14 | NE | NE -3.5 |
| 2013-09-22 | 2013 Wk 3 | TB 3 @ NE 23 | NE | NE -7.5 |
| 2009-10-25 | 2009 Wk 7 | NE 35 @ TB 7 | NE | NE -15.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away