TBNYG
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Giants -0.3.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Giants defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Buccaneers about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,480 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 4,520 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Giants rank 6th (3.9), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.1 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · NYG n/a | TB 55% · NYG 45% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -121 · NYG +121 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 21, TB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 17 and NYG by 15.
Side by side
| TB | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | TB 30 @ NYG 7 | TB | TB -6.5 |
| 2021-11-22 | 2021 Wk 11 | NYG 10 @ TB 30 | TB | TB -11.5 |
| 2020-11-02 | 2020 Wk 8 | TB 25 @ NYG 23 | TB | TB -13 |
| 2019-09-22 | 2019 Wk 3 | NYG 32 @ TB 31 | NYG | TB -5 |
| 2018-11-18 | 2018 Wk 11 | TB 35 @ NYG 38 | NYG | NYG -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away