TBNYJ
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Jets -1.7.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Buccaneers about 1.3 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Jets 21st (-1.9).
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Jets win 4,360 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Jets rank 4th (8.2%), Buccaneers 18th (6.1%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · NYJ n/a | TB 56% · NYJ 44% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -129 · NYJ +129 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 21, TB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 18 and NYJ by 15.
Side by side
| TB | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | NYJ 27 @ TB 29 | TB | TB -6.5 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | TB 28 @ NYJ 24 | TB | TB -14.5 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | NYJ 10 @ TB 15 | TB | TB -1 |
| 2013-09-08 | 2013 Wk 1 | TB 17 @ NYJ 18 | NYJ | TB -4 |
| 2009-12-13 | 2009 Wk 14 | NYJ 26 @ TB 3 | NYJ | NYJ -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away