TBPHI
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Eagles -10.0.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,250 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,750 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 0.8 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 16 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -0.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.9 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · PHI n/a | TB 52% · PHI 48% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -110 · PHI +110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 20, TB 21.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 17 and PHI by 16.
Side by side
| TB | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | PHI 31 @ TB 25 | PHI | PHI -3.5 |
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | PHI 16 @ TB 33 | TB | PHI -1 |
| 2024-01-15 | 2023 Wild Card | PHI 9 @ TB 32 | TB | PHI -2.5 |
| 2023-09-25 | 2023 Wk 3 | PHI 25 @ TB 11 | PHI | PHI -6 |
| 2022-01-16 | 2021 Wild Card | PHI 15 @ TB 31 | TB | TB -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away