TBPIT
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Any-day matchup, Steelers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PITPittsburgh Steelers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Steelers can win
- Simulation: Steelers win 5,960 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Steelers about 1.4 points stronger.
- Home field: Steelers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Steelers rank 13th (3.7), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Turnover margin per game: Steelers rank 5th (+0.6), Buccaneers 14th (+0.1).
Disadvantages Why the Steelers may not
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 4,040 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Steelers defense that ranks 18th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Steelers lose by 14 or more.
- Field goal percentage: Buccaneers rank 1st (100.0%), Steelers 20th (80.0%).
- Weak spot: Steelers rank 27th in offense, EPA per play (-0.06).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PIT -2.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.2 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · PIT n/a | TB 40% · PIT 60% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +147 · PIT -147 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PIT 23, TB 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 14 and PIT by 20.
Side by side
| TB | PIT | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 5-2 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 21.9 22 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 19.7 5 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 27 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 10 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 14 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | PIT 26 @ TB 19 | PIT | PIT -2.5 |
| 2022-10-16 | 2022 Wk 6 | TB 18 @ PIT 20 | PIT | TB -10 |
| 2018-09-24 | 2018 Wk 3 | PIT 30 @ TB 27 | PIT | TB -1 |
| 2014-09-28 | 2014 Wk 4 | TB 27 @ PIT 24 | TB | PIT -7.5 |
| 2010-09-26 | 2010 Wk 3 | PIT 38 @ TB 13 | PIT | PIT -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away