TBTEN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Titans -6.7.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Buccaneers about 3.0 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 6,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 3,380 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -4.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · TEN n/a | TB 66% · TEN 34% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -196 · TEN +196 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 19, TB 23.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 21 and TEN by 11.
Side by side
| TB | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-6 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-12 | 2023 Wk 10 | TEN 6 @ TB 20 | TB | TB -2.5 |
| 2019-10-27 | 2019 Wk 8 | TB 23 @ TEN 27 | TEN | TEN -2 |
| 2015-09-13 | 2015 Wk 1 | TEN 42 @ TB 14 | TEN | TB -3 |
| 2011-11-27 | 2011 Wk 12 | TB 17 @ TEN 23 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2007-10-14 | 2007 Wk 6 | TEN 10 @ TB 13 | TB | TB -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away