TENBAL
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens
Any-day matchup, Ravens at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BALBaltimore Ravens
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Ravens can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Ravens about 5.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Ravens win 7,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Ravens passing game (6th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.8 points to Ravens in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Ravens rank 17th (+0.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Ravens may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,070 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Ravens 26th (8.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Ravens lose by 6 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Ravens 21st (65.0).
- Weak spot: Ravens rank 26th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (8.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BAL -9.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · BAL n/a | TEN 21% · BAL 79% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +383 · BAL -383 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BAL 27, TEN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 6 and BAL by 27.
Side by side
| TEN | BAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 4-3 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 24.1 12 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 23.9 18 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.09 8 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.04 21 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 6.6% 16 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | TEN 18 @ BAL 24 | BAL | BAL -11.5 |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | BAL 24 @ TEN 16 | BAL | BAL -5.5 |
| 2021-01-10 | 2020 Wild Card | BAL 20 @ TEN 13 | BAL | BAL -3.5 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | TEN 30 @ BAL 24 | TEN | BAL -6 |
| 2020-01-11 | 2019 Divisional | TEN 28 @ BAL 12 | TEN | BAL -10 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away