TENBUF
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
85% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 85% pick loses about 1 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 7.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Bills win 8,540 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.9 points to Bills in our ratings.
- Bills passing game (3rd in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,460 of 10,000 simulations (15%). A 85% pick still loses about 1 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Bills 26th (4.3%).
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Bills 29th (73.2).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 3 or more.
- Weak spot: Bills rank 31st in defense, EPA per play allowed (+0.13).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -12.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.3 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · BUF n/a | TEN 15% · BUF 85% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +586 · BUF -586 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 30, TEN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 3 and BUF by 30.
Side by side
| TEN | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 5-1 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | TEN 10 @ BUF 34 | BUF | BUF -9.5 |
| 2022-09-19 | 2022 Wk 2 | TEN 7 @ BUF 41 | BUF | BUF -10 |
| 2021-10-18 | 2021 Wk 6 | BUF 31 @ TEN 34 | TEN | BUF -6 |
| 2020-10-13 | 2020 Wk 5 | BUF 16 @ TEN 42 | TEN | BUF -3 |
| 2019-10-06 | 2019 Wk 5 | BUF 14 @ TEN 7 | BUF | TEN -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away