TENDEN
Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos
Any-day matchup, Broncos at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
DENDenver Broncos
83% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 83% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Broncos can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Broncos about 5.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Broncos win 8,280 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Broncos +7.7, Titans -6.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Broncos in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Broncos rank 16th (+0.4), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Broncos may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,720 of 10,000 simulations (17%). A 83% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Titans running game (22nd in EPA) faces the Broncos defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Broncos lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.01).
- Weak spot: Broncos rank 29th in explosive plays (20+ yards) per game (2.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | DEN -10.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.7 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · DEN n/a | TEN 17% · DEN 83% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +483 · DEN -483 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: DEN 26, TEN 14.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 5 and DEN by 28.
Side by side
| TEN | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 5-2 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 20.6 25 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 20.1 7 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 25 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.04 8 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 9 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-07 | 2025 Wk 1 | TEN 12 @ DEN 20 | DEN | DEN -8.5 |
| 2022-11-13 | 2022 Wk 10 | DEN 10 @ TEN 17 | TEN | TEN -2.5 |
| 2020-09-14 | 2020 Wk 1 | TEN 16 @ DEN 14 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2019-10-13 | 2019 Wk 6 | TEN 0 @ DEN 16 | DEN | DEN -1 |
| 2016-12-11 | 2016 Wk 14 | DEN 10 @ TEN 13 | TEN | TEN -2 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away