TENHOU
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Any-day matchup, Texans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
HOUHouston Texans
81% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 81% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Texans can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Texans about 5.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Texans win 8,060 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Texans +6.7, Titans -6.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.1 points to Texans in our ratings.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Texans rank 4th (4.0), Titans 31st (2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Texans may not
- Texans are missing regulars: S Reed Blankenship (out), S Jalen Pitre (out).
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,940 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 81% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Texans lose by 6 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Texans 28th (72.6).
- Weak spot: Texans rank 31st in explosive plays allowed per game (4.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | HOU -10.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.9 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · HOU n/a | TEN 19% · HOU 81% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +416 · HOU -416 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: HOU 26, TEN 14.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 6 and HOU by 27.
Side by side
| TEN | HOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 23.6 15 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 24.3 19 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 12 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 18 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 7.9% 5 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | 2026 Wk 5 | HOU 26 @ TEN 3 | HOU | HOU -6.5 |
| 2025-11-16 | 2025 Wk 11 | HOU 16 @ TEN 13 | HOU | HOU -5.5 |
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | TEN 0 @ HOU 26 | HOU | HOU -7.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | HOU 23 @ TEN 14 | HOU | TEN -2.5 |
| 2024-11-24 | 2024 Wk 12 | TEN 32 @ HOU 27 | TEN | HOU -8 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away