TENIND
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts
Any-day matchup, Colts at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
INDIndianapolis Colts
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Colts can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Colts about 3.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Colts win 7,010 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Colts play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Colts running game (5th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Colts in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Colts may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,990 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Titans rank 21st (-0.4), Colts 32nd (-1.3).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Colts lose by 10 or more.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Colts 21st (7.3%).
- Weak spot: Colts rank 32nd in turnover margin per game (-1.3).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | IND -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.1 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · IND n/a | TEN 30% · IND 70% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +234 · IND -234 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: IND 24, TEN 19.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 10 and IND by 24.
Side by side
| TEN | IND | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 25.7 23 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.06 26 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 19 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -1.3 32 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 5.8% 20 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | 2026 Wk 6 | TEN 26 @ IND 20 | TEN | IND -6.5 |
| 2025-10-26 | 2025 Wk 8 | TEN 14 @ IND 38 | IND | IND -15.5 |
| 2025-09-21 | 2025 Wk 3 | IND 41 @ TEN 20 | IND | IND -6 |
| 2024-12-22 | 2024 Wk 16 | TEN 30 @ IND 38 | IND | IND -4 |
| 2024-10-13 | 2024 Wk 6 | IND 20 @ TEN 17 | IND | TEN -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away