TENLV
Tennessee Titans @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 25th against it.
- Simulation: Raiders win 6,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Raiders about 1.8 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Titans 21st (-0.4).
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Titans -6.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Upset odds: Titans win 3,250 of 10,000 simulations (32%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Raiders lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 32nd in running game, EPA per carry (-0.27).
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 29th in points allowed per game (28.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · LV n/a | TEN 32% · LV 68% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +208 · LV -208 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 24, TEN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 10 and LV by 22.
Side by side
| TEN | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 3-4 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-12 | 2025 Wk 6 | TEN 10 @ LV 20 | LV | LV -3.5 |
| 2022-09-25 | 2022 Wk 3 | LV 22 @ TEN 24 | TEN | LV -1.5 |
| 2019-12-08 | 2019 Wk 14 | TEN 42 @ LV 21 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2017-09-10 | 2017 Wk 1 | LV 26 @ TEN 16 | LV | TEN -2.5 |
| 2016-09-25 | 2016 Wk 3 | LV 17 @ TEN 10 | LV | LV -1.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away