TENPHI
Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Eagles can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 3.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Eagles win 6,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Strength: Eagles rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
- Strength: Eagles rank 9th in penalty yards per game (52.1).
Disadvantages Why the Eagles may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 3,150 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Eagles 32nd (3.2%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Eagles lose by 10 or more.
- Titans running game (22nd in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Weak spot: Eagles rank 32nd in pass rush, sacks per dropback (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -5.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 40.5 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · PHI n/a | TEN 32% · PHI 68% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +217 · PHI -217 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 23, TEN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 10 and PHI by 22.
Side by side
| TEN | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | PHI 24 @ TEN 20 | PHI | PHI -7 |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Wk 13 | TEN 10 @ PHI 35 | PHI | PHI -5 |
| 2018-09-30 | 2018 Wk 4 | PHI 23 @ TEN 26 | TEN | PHI -3 |
| 2014-11-23 | 2014 Wk 12 | TEN 24 @ PHI 43 | PHI | PHI -11 |
| 2010-10-24 | 2010 Wk 7 | PHI 19 @ TEN 37 | TEN | TEN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away