TENWAS
Tennessee Titans @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
WASWashington Commanders
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Commanders can win
- Simulation: Commanders win 6,400 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Commanders about 1.7 points stronger.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Titans 21st (-0.4).
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Commanders rank 16th (3.7), Titans 31st (2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Commanders may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 3,600 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Titans running game (22nd in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Commanders lose by 11 or more.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Commanders 23rd (4.8%).
- Weak spot: Commanders rank 32nd in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.05).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | WAS -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · WAS n/a | TEN 36% · WAS 64% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +177 · WAS -177 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 24, TEN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 11 and WAS by 21.
Side by side
| TEN | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-01 | 2024 Wk 13 | TEN 19 @ WAS 42 | WAS | WAS -6 |
| 2022-10-09 | 2022 Wk 5 | TEN 21 @ WAS 17 | TEN | TEN -1 |
| 2018-12-22 | 2018 Wk 16 | WAS 16 @ TEN 25 | TEN | TEN -12.5 |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Wk 7 | TEN 17 @ WAS 19 | WAS | WAS -6 |
| 2010-11-21 | 2010 Wk 11 | WAS 19 @ TEN 16 | WAS | TEN -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away