WASATL
Washington Commanders @ Atlanta Falcons
Any-day matchup, Falcons at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
ATLAtlanta Falcons
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Falcons can win
- Falcons running game (10th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Falcons win 6,520 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.7 points to Falcons in our ratings.
- Home field: Falcons play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Falcons about 1.1 points stronger.
Disadvantages Why the Falcons may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Falcons 21st (-0.4).
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,480 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Falcons lose by 11 or more.
- History: Commanders won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Falcons rank 25th in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.07).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | ATL -4.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.4 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · ATL n/a | WAS 35% · ATL 65% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +188 · ATL -188 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: ATL 27, WAS 21.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 11 and ATL by 21.
Side by side
| WAS | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 24.4 10 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 24.7 20 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 23 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.00 15 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 5.6% 22 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-28 | 2025 Wk 4 | WAS 27 @ ATL 34 | ATL | ATL -2.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | ATL 24 @ WAS 30 | WAS | WAS -3.5 |
| 2023-10-15 | 2023 Wk 6 | WAS 24 @ ATL 16 | WAS | ATL -1.5 |
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | ATL 13 @ WAS 19 | WAS | WAS -3.5 |
| 2021-10-03 | 2021 Wk 4 | WAS 34 @ ATL 30 | WAS | WAS -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away