WASBUF
Washington Commanders @ Buffalo Bills
Any-day matchup, Bills at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
BUFBuffalo Bills
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Bills can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Bills about 5.2 points stronger.
- Bills running game (1st in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Simulation: Bills win 7,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Bills rank 8th (+4.3), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Bills in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Bills may not
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Bills 26th (-0.5).
- Commanders passing game (19th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 29th against it.
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Bills defense that ranks 24th against it.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,100 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Bills lose by 6 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | BUF -9.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 52.5 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · BUF n/a | WAS 21% · BUF 79% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +375 · BUF -375 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: BUF 30, WAS 21.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 6 and BUF by 27.
Side by side
| WAS | BUF | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 5-1 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 32.8 1 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 28.5 30 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | +0.20 1 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.13 31 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 4.3% 26 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-24 | 2023 Wk 3 | BUF 37 @ WAS 3 | BUF | BUF -5.5 |
| 2021-09-26 | 2021 Wk 3 | WAS 21 @ BUF 43 | BUF | BUF -7.5 |
| 2019-11-03 | 2019 Wk 9 | WAS 9 @ BUF 24 | BUF | BUF -10.5 |
| 2015-12-20 | 2015 Wk 15 | BUF 25 @ WAS 35 | WAS | BUF -2.5 |
| 2011-10-30 | 2011 Wk 8 | WAS 0 @ BUF 23 | BUF | BUF -4 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away