WASCAR
Washington Commanders @ Carolina Panthers
Any-day matchup, Panthers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
CARCarolina Panthers
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Panthers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Panthers about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Panthers win 6,370 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Panthers running game (18th in EPA) faces the Commanders defense that ranks 32nd against it.
- Home field: Panthers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Panthers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Panthers may not
- Panthers are missing regulars: CB Akayleb Evans (out), G Damien Lewis (out), LB Jaelan Phillips (out).
- Commanders running game (12th in EPA) faces the Panthers defense that ranks 31st against it.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,630 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Commanders rank 2nd (+1.0), Panthers 16th (+0.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Panthers lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | CAR -4.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.4 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · CAR n/a | WAS 36% · CAR 64% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +176 · CAR -176 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: CAR 26, WAS 21.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 12 and CAR by 21.
Side by side
| WAS | CAR | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 25.4 9 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 27.6 27 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | +0.02 13 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 23 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +0.0 16 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 4.0% 28 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Wk 7 | CAR 7 @ WAS 40 | WAS | WAS -10 |
| 2021-11-21 | 2021 Wk 11 | WAS 27 @ CAR 21 | WAS | CAR -3.5 |
| 2020-12-27 | 2020 Wk 16 | CAR 20 @ WAS 13 | CAR | CAR -1 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | WAS 29 @ CAR 21 | WAS | CAR -10.5 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | CAR 17 @ WAS 23 | WAS | CAR -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away